On June 25, 2008, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted the next annual conference organized by the Department of Southeast Asian Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. It was devoted to current socio-economic and political problems and trends in the development of Southeast Asia at the regional and country levels. It was attended by employees of the Department of Southeast Asia, academic institutes and higher educational institutions of Moscow, employees of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and other practical organizations.

The conference program included three blocks of questions: the first - main reports, the second-presentations on regional problems of economics and politics, and the third-country problems. The main presentations were made by the Heads of the Department. Department of Southeast Asia D. V. Mosyakov, Ambassador-at-Large V. N. Dobrovolsky (MFA of the Russian Federation), S. A. Bylinyak (IB RAS).

In his report "Southeast Asia in Search of Internal Consolidation and Foreign Policy Balance", Dmitry Mosyakov noted new factors and trends in the struggle of great powers for dominance in Southeast Asia. Japan and the United States are trying to strengthen their positions and limit China's expansion. Beijing hopes to bind the countries of the region more tightly to itself through economic and political expansion. New factors of 2007: Japan's active offensive policy and the position of the ASEAN countries (primarily the most developed ones), which seek to unite the regional bloc in order to maintain a multi-vector balance of interests. As part of this policy of equidistance, the political elites of the leading countries of the Association, as a counter to Chinese expansion, began to vigorously advocate the development of relations with Japan and the expansion of the American presence in Southeast Asia. Significant changes are also taking place within ASEAN. The final stage was marked by the adoption of the Charter of the Association, a document prepared by a number of influential regional politicians. If it is ratified by all ASEAN members, the principles of its internal structure will radically change. The Charter affirms Western values as absolute, which all countries of the European Union must follow. But it is precisely the attempt to consolidate the ASEAN countries on this basis that is most likely to provoke opposition from those regimes that are not ready and unwilling to follow the Western path.

China, in turn, is making adjustments to its expansion policy. The PRC actually divides Southeast Asia into continental and island countries proper. To this end, China is implementing the long-standing Greater Mekong project. The least developed and poor countries of Southeast Asia are Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos. Myanmar-today China is considered as the main source of financial resources. China is already investing heavily in their development. Thailand, for all its generally pro - Western orientation, is a traditionally friendly state to China. Thus, Beijing, without abandoning the development of a free trade zone with the ASEAN countries, is simultaneously creating a new project where even today Chinese hegemony could not be seriously challenged.

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V. N. Dobrovolsky in his report "Trends in integration processes in the Asia-Pacific region", analyzing the role of Russia in the Asia-Pacific region, noted the importance and fruitful activity of the Russian Federation in the Southeast Asia region, participation in integration processes in East and South-East Asia, our country's activity in APEC, in the new regional structure-East Asian Summits (EAS). The speaker drew special attention to the diversity and complexity of problems, the interweaving of various trends and factors in the Asia-Pacific region and in Southeast Asia in particular (problems of regional and national security, cultural and historical aspects, issues of economic and food security, ethno-confessional factor, etc.). In our policy in the Asia-Pacific region, the speaker stressed, it is necessary to take into account the specifics of the region. It is necessary to analyze the impact and consequences of the current global financial crisis on the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, and first of all on the developing countries of East and South-East Asia, which, in addition,are acutely affected by the food crisis. The complex of these problems can only be solved on a global scale under the auspices of the United Nations. V. N. Dobrovolsky also stressed that holding APEC in Russia in 2012 is an important step in the development of globalization for our country.
S. A. Bylinyak considered the impact of world economic processes on the economy of developing countries. He noted that in recent years, the term "decouple" ("demarcation") has become firmly established in the economic literature. It means that the influence of the economic cycles of the world economy centers on the periphery is weakening. And the current global economic crisis confirms this. In the face of this crisis, many developing countries are maintaining high growth rates. This fully applies to Southeast Asia as well. The mechanism of "disengagement" is due, first, to the fact that reproductive ties between developing countries are being strengthened. Second, over the past decade, developing countries have provided the main impetus to the global economy due to their rapid economic growth and intensive structural adjustment of the economy. However, the rapporteur notes the following. In recent years, the main drivers of economic growth in a number of Southeast Asian countries have been favorable external conditions, primarily rising prices for export goods. The crisis in the leading financial markets caused liquidity tensions, increased borrowing costs, which resulted in a deterioration in the solvency of peripheral debtors, and a sharp slowdown in the flow of cross-border financial resources. However, this did not greatly affect the Southeast Asian countries that survived the financial crisis, and their financial institutions pursued conservative policies. However, for some other developing countries, the process was more painful. Currently, the global economic crisis, the source of which is the economic problems of the leading developed countries, and especially the United States, is far from over. And only after it is completed will it be possible to judge how much and in what directions the economic separation between the center and the periphery is taking place.

The second section was opened by O. V. Kopylov (post-graduate student at MGIMO University of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation) "On the development of cooperation between Russia and ASEAN: problems and prospects". Since 1996, Russia and ASEAN have been linked by a "dialogue partnership", but the real process of cooperation began after the first Russia-ASEAN summit, held in Kuala Lumpur in December 2005. It was then that the international legal foundation of our relations was laid. Today, the main task is to consistently implement the provisions of these documents. The parties began by forming a regulatory framework for cooperation and establishing a permanent expert dialogue in areas of real interest to both sides. The first results of this work have already been achieved: consultative mechanisms have been established in a number of areas, such as counter-terrorism, science and technology, and tourism; a financial fund for the Russia-ASEAN dialogue partnership has been established, with the amount of Russian contributions in 2007-2008. It amounted to US $ 1 million.

At the same time, the process of establishing ties between Russia and the Association is still slow. First of all, this applies to trade and investment cooperation. Russia's trade with ASEAN increased from $ 1.3 billion to $ 1.2 billion. In 2000, it increased to just over $ 7.0 billion. For comparison, the ASEAN-China trade turnover increased from $ 20 billion to $ 190 billion over the same period. US$). Another factor is the historically established cooperation of the economic entities of the Association countries with Japan, the United States, China, South Korea, etc., the large share of Western TNCs in the industry and foreign trade of ASEAN, as well as the limited number of foreign investors in the region.-

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the limited number of Russian export resources that are of interest to the top ten countries. In turn, Russian commodity flows, including energy ones, are now largely oriented in the western direction. Certain prospects for the development of trade with ASEAN are associated with the expansion of exports of Russian hydrocarbons. It follows from this that the content of Russia's cooperation with the Southeast Asian countries directly depends on what model of its own economic development our country will adhere to. If Russia's internal development continues within the framework of the raw material model, cooperation with ASEAN may be reduced to the struggle of partner states for Russian natural resources. If the development of Russia actually follows the path of innovation, Russia will have every chance to gain a foothold in the markets of the Southeast Asian countries seriously and for a long time.

A. A. Rogozhin (IMEMO RAS) in his speech "The integration process in Southeast Asia: an energy aspect" stated that in 2007 in this region, the problem of energy security has become extremely acute. The situation in the oil and gas sector of some ASEAN countries and the situation with energy carriers on the world market are also worrying. In general, Southeast Asia will not be able to meet its energy needs from its own resources in 10 to 12 years. Dependence on imports is growing markedly in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. According to the author's calculations, all ASEAN countries, including the current oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, will become net importers of oil and, most likely, natural gas. With a growing energy deficit in the long term, Southeast Asia can no longer be considered as a region that is reliably provided with energy resources and therefore particularly attractive for investment. This has important implications not only for the internal policies of the Association's member countries, but also for their foreign economic policy, especially in the energy sector. None of the group's member countries is able to solve the problem of national energy security on their own.

N. G. Rogozhina (IMEMO) in the report "Labor migration in Southeast Asia: trends and prospects" noted that at present this phenomenon has acquired a new content and forms, and labor migration has now become an important factor in regional development. The intensity and direction of migrant flows have changed, and a new group of Southeast Asian countries has emerged - immigration centers with a high proportion of foreign workers (Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Thailand). The author analyzed the main directions of intraregional labor migration in 2007, noting its "feminization", as well as the acute problem of illegal migrants.

M. V. Kuritsyn (Geo-Spectrum Group) in his report" Trade relations of Southeast Asian countries with China "reported that in 2007 the balance of trade operations of the region's countries with China remained very favorable for them. According to the author, this is primarily due to China's high demand for raw materials produced in Southeast Asia, especially for ores, minerals, metals, oil, oil and chemical products. Overall, the competitiveness of Chinese goods in the Southeast Asian markets remained low, especially in the machinery and equipment group. This, according to the author, prompted China to concentrate its main efforts on promoting exports to the countries of the Southeast Asian mainland, where not only the economic, but also the political position of the PRC is noticeably stronger compared to the countries of the island part of the region.

R. S. Sukharev (IMEMO) in his report "The Middle East-Southeast Asia: the scope and spheres of economic cooperation" analyzed the reasons for the noticeable expansion of economic relations between the countries of Southeast Asia and the Middle East region. According to the author, this is primarily due to the price dynamics in the global oil market, which led to an increase in the cost of exports from the Middle East to Southeast Asia. In 2007, there was a revival in the activity of both private investors and public investment funds from the Middle East in the Southeast Asian countries. Attempts by oil and gas companies in some countries of the region (especially Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand) to gain direct access to the oil and gas resources of the Middle East (primarily Iraq) have also intensified.

I. N. Klyuev (IMEMO) in the report "Iran-Southeast Asia: a new direction of Iranian economic diplomacy" justified the assumption that Iran, seeking to expand its contacts with the countries of Southeast Asia, is guided by certain economic interests. The Southeast Asian countries hope to develop economic relations with Iran, counting not so much on expanding oil and gas supplies from this country, but on the potential opportunities of the Iranian market for their goods and services.

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M. G. Osinova (IB RAS) spoke about the peculiarities of financial integration in South-East Asia. She noted that in the context of increasing crisis phenomena in global financial markets, the stable development of emerging financial markets in Southeast Asia, as well as in Singapore and Hong Kong, initiates a new strategy for building integration ties, reorienting it from global to regional. Measures have been outlined and are being implemented to increase the region's self-sufficiency in various areas of the economy: from information exchange to financing mechanisms in foreign currency. ASEAN governments, especially in Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines, are pursuing policies aimed at deepening the regional bond market in order to reduce their dependence on bank financing, which will help protect their countries from the volatility of future capital flows. According to M. G. Osipova, the reorientation of integration initiatives from the global level to the regional level is a long process and not very amenable to the control of the highest government bodies. The spontaneous penetration of crisis phenomena into the structure of emerging financial markets can not only stop this process, but also contribute to its significant transformation, up to a significant curtailment of integration ties, or their attribution to a later date.

A. P. Muranova (IB RAS) reviewed taxation models in Southeast Asian countries. The region as a whole has three tax models: the first is very dynamic and very liberal - in Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam; the second is less mobile and less liberal - in Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines; and the third is sedentary and conservative - in Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, the most underdeveloped countries in the region.

In terms of the tax burden, which is measured by the ratio of tax revenues to the budget and GDP, the Southeast Asian countries are divided into three groups: in the first (Cambodia and Myanmar), the tax burden is extremely low (less than 9% of GDP), in the second (Indonesia and Singapore) - low (12%), in the third (Malaysia Thailand and Vietnam) - moderately low (17-20%). From the point of view of the structural characteristics of the tax systems of the countries of the region, in particular the ratio of direct and indirect taxation, two models are distinguished: the first-with a predominance of direct (income and property) taxes in Malaysia and Singapore, i.e. in the most developed countries of the region, and the second - with a predominance of indirect (for goods and services and customs duties) taxes in other countries. In terms of nominal corporate tax rates, there are two models: the first one - in Cambodia and Singapore - with low rates (18-20% of taxable income) and the second one-in other countries of the region - with high rates (from 28 to 32%). The tax on the income of resident individuals is levied on a complex multi-stage progressive scale. According to the level of nominal marginal rates of this tax, there are also two models: the first - in Cambodia and Singapore, where tax rates are low (up to 20% of taxable income), and the second - in other countries, where tax rates are high (from 28 to 40%). Non-residents pay income tax, as a rule, at a fixed flat rate, ranging from 20% in Cambodia, Indonesia and Singapore to 25% in Vietnam and the Philippines and up to 28% in Malaysia.

G. S. Shabalina (Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences) highlighted the main aspects of the extremely acute problem of economic losses in 2007 - early 2008 related to natural disasters in the Southeast Asian and South Asian countries. Numerous earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, and droughts have serious consequences for the socio-economic life of these countries. The experts ' analysis shows that the consequences of natural disasters are most noticeable in countries with undeveloped and closed economies (Myanmar, Bangladesh, etc.), with high public spending, poor and poorly educated populations. Recovery is more successful in countries that implement more advanced social and economic development strategies (in Southeast Asia - Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam), as well as in countries that accept external assistance.

The third block was opened by A. Drugov's speech " Indonesia in 2007 Results and prospects " This year, he noted, there was an aggravation of the pre-election struggle. In contrast to the well-known stabilization of the economy, there were persistent divisions in the elite, which undermines the authority of the authorities. Ties with Russia developed, and Indonesia's relations with the West, especially with the United States, strengthened. Conflict situations that periodically arise in Indonesia's relations with its neighbors, in particular with Singapore and Malaysia, deserve attention.

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L. F. Pakhomova (IB RAS) analyzed the work of the Forum established in Indonesia in 2005. on the initiative of representatives of the business and political elite and a group of prominent economic experts and sociologists. Its main task was the gradual development of the course "Vision of Indonesia in 2030". In addition to private property, it allows for collective ownership, which is common in many parts of Indonesia in various forms. New forms of social cooperation between the government (state), entrepreneurs, and the bureaucracy are proposed. It is planned to reform the army, the bureaucracy, the labor market, and land relations. Much attention is paid to the development of business rules, cooperation between the public and private sectors, with the latter playing a leading role. The main principle of economic activity is the market in combination with elements of state regulation and social control. The creation of small, micro and medium-sized enterprises should contribute to the fight against poverty. Campaigns for healthy lifestyles, improved health care, and reduced mortality, especially in infants, should lead to life extension to 74 years by 2030. The population will be 285 million. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said that by 2030, the per capita income will reach $ 18 thousand, and Indonesia will become one of the world's leading economic powers.

G. V. Suchkov's speech (Vostochny University) was devoted to the problem of the Indonesian armed forces in 2007-2008. An important place on the scale of government priorities is occupied by the rearmament of the army. Where to find funds for the modernization of the technical park and how to fit it into the context of Jakarta's bilateral relations with the world's leading players in the military-technical sphere are serious questions that politicians and representatives of the Armed Forces are trying to solve. Active political maneuvers of a number of prominent retired officers in the run - up to the eventful electoral year of 2009 is another topic that needs to be considered.

In the message of E. A. Cherepneva (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) " Indonesian Orthodox Church (CPI) as part of the Russian Orthodox Church( ROC): problems and prospects" considered the current situation of the CPI. Some Orthodox parishes in Indonesia are under the jurisdiction of the Patriarch of Constantinople, while others are under the leadership of Archimandrite Fr. St. Daniel's came under the jurisdiction of the Russian Orthodox Church Abroad (ROCOR). All currently serving ROCOR clergy and their flock are members of the United Russian Church. On May 17, 2008, the act of canonical communion between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Russian Orthodox Church was signed. This poses a number of problems. The CPI is a religious organization officially recognized by the Indonesian Government and registered in the Protestant Churches Sector, which is an umbrella organization for the Orthodox communities of the Fr. Daniel. The Moscow Patriarchate maintains relations with Hieromonk Joasaph as its cleric (an Indonesian who graduated from the Belgorod Seminary in Russia, was ordained there and sent to Indonesia as a missionary as a cleric of the Russian Orthodox Church). Since April 2003, Fr. Joasaph headed the St. Thomas the Apostle Parish in Jakarta for two years (while Fr. Daniel was absent), and then established a separate parish there.

M. V. Orlova (PhD student at the Institute of Cultural Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences) highlighted the current situation of Chinese ethnic diasporas in Indonesia and Malaysia. In Indonesia, the Chinese, controlling over 70% of economic activity, were the target of political discrimination by the authorities and social hatred of the indigenous population. Only in recent years have ethnic tensions eased somewhat, although this process cannot be considered irreversible. In Malaysia, in a similar situation, government policies to promote the economic role of indigenous people have reduced inter-communal tensions for some time, but in recent years the Chinese and Indian communities have been advocating for the end of indigenous benefits.

E. V. Novikova's presentation "Socio-cultural image of the modern Chinese diaspora in Malaysia and Singapore" was devoted to the topic of the relationship between the Huaqiao economic passionarity in Malaysia and Singapore and their traditional psychology. It is obvious that in the parameters of Chinese ideology there are certain prerequisites that preserve the connection of the diaspora with the cultural and civilizational core. First of all, they are expressed in the philosophy of Confucianism and Taoism and are not religious, but rather ethical and practical in nature.

Chinese culture is devoid of a rigid form of religious expression, but it is by no means devoid of a deep penetration of the sacred principle into all spheres of cultural life. In the absence of a fixed religious doctrine that regulates the spheres of spiritual life, all-

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The encompassing sacred reality has maintained its influence on society since ancient times. Not fully expressed in any of the philosophical teachings, it manifests itself in their synthesis. Its action goes beyond ideology and manifests itself in broader forms: everyday behavior, standards of perception, types of play behavior, and even in the forms of traditional cuisine-in everything that belongs to the scope of the cultural program, the so-called cultural code. The Chinese traditional worldview system in Malaysia has adapted to the realities of the modern world. Without changing its essence, it has chosen economic activity as the instrument of its social expression.

In Singapore, the entire policy of the state is determined by people from Chinese culture. As a more detailed analysis shows, the Chinese community is preserved as long as the main values of its members are determined by Confucian morality, and the individual's self-identification corresponds to the system of Chinese clan kinship. In the culture of everyday life of Chinese people in Singapore, it is safe to recognize both of these parameters as viable.

V. A. Tyurin (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) made a report on "Emergency Situations in the history of Malaysia: Present and past". "Emergency" - a civil war in the form of ethnic confrontation (Malays-Chinese), which lasted in Malaya from June 18, 1948 to July 31, 1960. In a narrow sense, this word refers to the guerrilla war waged by the Communist Party of Malaya (ethnically Chinese) against the British colonialists, but since it affected the pace and nature of the country's independence, it is difficult to reduce it only to a military confrontation between the British army and police and Communist guerrillas. "Emergency" still influences psychological stereotypes of ethnic life in Malaya/Malaysia and is evaluated differently not only in the country, but also abroad.

V. F. Urlyapov (IB RAS) analyzed the political crisis in East Timor (Timor-Leste), the origins of which date back to the beginning of 2006. It was suspended at the end of June 2006, when Prime Minister M. Alkatiri was forced to resign as head of State. There was no political stabilization in 2007. Last year was marked by presidential and parliamentary elections. Zh. Zh. was elected to the post of head of state. Ramos-Horta, who formally ran as an independent candidate, but enjoyed the support of President III. Gusmau and Australia. The ruling Fretilin party won the majority of votes in the parliamentary elections. However, the Government was formed by a coalition led by the National Congress for the Reconstruction of Timor. FRETILIN has effectively lost power. On February 11, 2008, a group of rebel soldiers attempted to assassinate the Prime Minister and the President. The official interpretation of the "double attempt" gave the authorities reason to introduce a heightened state of emergency, and Australia - to strengthen its military and police presence in the young republic. In fact, there was a creeping coup d'etat in the country, and Australia received powerful levers of control over the domestic and foreign policy of East Timor, commensurate, apparently, with the establishment of the protectorate regime.
Sergey Berezinsky (Federal Agency for Energy of the Russian Federation) in his report "Trends and Prospects for the development of the Brunei oil and gas industry" spoke about new developments in this area in 2007 and their consequences for the economic development of Brunei. Among the most significant, the author considers the discovery of the third major gas field, which will allow the country to continue (at least in the medium term) the supply of liquefied natural gas to the world market, as well as the successful completion and construction of the first deep-water well on the shelf in the history of Brunei's NGC (5.6 thousand tons). m), the commissioning of which opens up favorable prospects for the country to develop oil and gas fields that were previously considered practically inaccessible.

E. M. Gurevich (IB RAS) reviewed some aspects of Singapore's socio-economic and political development in 2007, noting that the government of Lee Hsien Loong continued to successfully develop the country's economy (economic growth was 8%, unemployment fell to 1.7%, which actually means achieving full employment, per capita income exceeded 30 thousand AM E. M. Gurevich emphasized that against the background of general economic well-being, the issue of growing social inequality among the population of the city-state remains extremely acute. To a large extent, the problem is caused by a deep

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Singapore's inclusion in the global economic system makes it extremely vulnerable to the challenges that globalization brings, including the pressure of the global market for cheap labor, with which a group of unskilled workers and the older generation of Singaporeans have to compete, and this cannot but have an impact on the domestic political situation in the country.

For fear of losing the trust of its voters, the government of Lee Hsien Loong is trying to adjust its policy towards a more social orientation, and also, given the severity of the problem, fraught with a social explosion, to limit the activities of the opposition, which, as recent elections have shown, is slowly but surely increasing the number of its supporters. However, in the near future, weakened not only by the actions of the government, but also by intra-and inter-party struggles, the opposition is unlikely to be able to really threaten such a political hegemon as the MHP.

M. V. Matyukhin (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in the report "Singapore as a capital exporter" drew attention to the fact that in 2007 the public sector of Singapore sharply intensified investment activity. First of all, this applies to the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, which ranks second in the world in terms of investment resources ($330 billion) among the world's public investment funds. The corporation's operations were large (in particular, $ 6.8 billion was invested in the American bank Citigroup) and proved to be very effective for Singapore in economic terms, which aroused the interest of the Russian Ministry of Finance, whose officials carefully studied the foreign experience of investing funds, primarily in Norway and Singapore.

Yu. O. Levtonova (IB RAS) reviewed the political situation in the Philippines in 2007 - the first half of 2008 in the run-up to the 2010 presidential election. The situation in the country remains unstable. There are also some positive factors in politics and the economy. As a result of the midterm elections (May 2007), the balance of political forces remained the same (the presidential majority in the lower house of Congress, a high level of local support for the head of state). This allows Mr. Arroyo to resort to maneuvering and blocking with different political groups. The economy is experiencing a record 7.2% GDP growth over the past five years and a fairly consistent implementation of government programs for economic liberalization. In foreign policy - strengthening the pro-American orientation. In addition to dominating military cooperation, the United States remains the main investor in the Philippine economy, a source of financial resources and economic assistance, in particular, multi-million-dollar American "injections" intended to resolve the situation on Mindanao Island, where since 2003 it has been a major source of financial resources and economic assistance. The Philippine government is in talks with a separatist Muslim organization (MILF). The remaining negative factors are growing corruption, unsolvability of social problems. In terms of basic socio-economic indicators, the Philippines still closes the top five most developed countries in ASEAN. The upcoming election three-year period is expected to be turbulent, with temporary outbreaks of confrontation between the government and the opposition (the last real or imaginary plot to remove G. Arroyo from power was revealed in July 2008). However, given the "US factor", the traditional disunity of both the elite and the opposition, the possibility of" survival " of the regime until 2010, it seems quite realistic.

E. A. Fomicheva (IB RAS) analyzed the development of the political situation in Thailand in 2007-early 2008, when the government formed as a result of a military coup was replaced by a government with a parliamentary majority based on the results of the parliamentary elections held in December 2007.The author emphasizes that the main task of the coup government was to restore the disturbed political balance between the elites. Yet despite the ban on Thaksin Chinnawat's Thai Rak Thai party, his base of support has remained as broad and as stable as it was before the military coup. The election was won by the People's Power Party (Palang Prachachon), which won 233 seats in parliament. A coalition government was formed, led by the leader of the winning party, Samak Sundarawet, a supporter of ousted Thaksin Shinawatra. The author concludes that the parliamentary elections marked a formal return to democracy. However, the economic, social, and political reasons for the political crisis are-

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sa in the country has not been eliminated, moreover, they may worsen. The problem of violence in the Muslim south of the country remains very urgent, and the possibility of a crisis in the entire political system of Thailand is not excluded.

There is a further aggravation of the political crisis in Myanmar, A. A. Simonia (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) noted in her speech. After the suppression of the saffron revolution attempt in September 2007 and pressure from China and the ASEAN-friendly countries, the State Peace and Development Council began to push hard for the implementation of the political reform agenda - the road map to democracy. Its main objectives are the adoption of a new constitution (a referendum was scheduled for May 10, 2008) and the holding of general elections in 2010. Despite the tragic consequences of Hurricane Nargiz, which struck Myanmar on May 3, 2008, the referendum was held on time. Access to the country to foreign rescuers was closed for almost three weeks, the affected population of the delta. The Irrawaddy received no humanitarian aid. In late May, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's house arrest was extended without trial. The actions of the authorities in an emergency situation caused a negative reaction and discontent within the country and condemnation of the international community. A. A. Simonia concludes that the military regime in Myanmar wants to achieve legitimization of its power at any cost and as soon as possible, and no natural cataclysm can prevent this. A. A. Simonia also recalled that sometimes natural disasters have a serious impact on the political situation in the country, as was the case in Indonesia after the 2004 tsunami and in East Pakistan in 1970. Everything depends on the appropriate actions of the authorities.

V. F. Vasiliev (IB RAS) in his report "On the 60th anniversary of the independence of Myanmar/Burma" paid attention not so much to the anniversary as to the assessment of the circumstances that preceded or followed it. The 60th anniversary itself did not attract attention either in Myanmar itself or abroad. It was overshadowed by much larger events. The military-dictatorial regime was shaken by new mass protests of Buddhist monks ("saffron revolution") and some lay people, directed against the military junta (see the speech of A. A. Simony). The devastating cyclone (more than 170,000 dead and missing) was used by the junta to promote and direct pressure in favor of the approval of the draft constitution by the population as a factor of stability in the conditions of chaos and panic. As a result, more than 90% of the population allegedly spoke in favor. According to V. F. Vasilyev, much will depend on the parliamentary activity of the opposition, including on its willingness and ability to compromise with the authorities and refuse to be too uncompromising and belligerent.

G. F. Murasheva (Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in her report "Vietnam in the ASEAN Integration Space" focused on the main stages of Vietnam's participation and its role in regional integration. Vietnam was admitted to ASEAN without any preconditions, as an equal among equals, and not a junior partner of more developed countries. In 2007 and 2008, Vietnam continued to actively participate in all integration projects of ASEAN, which rated it "constructivism". It is recognized that Vietnam is becoming one of the leaders of ASEAN, showing other countries an "example of success" (thanks to the dynamic development of the economy, socio-political stability, balanced foreign policy), following the formula "harmonization of national and regional interests". In March 2008, Vietnam was one of the first ASEAN member States to ratify the ASEAN Charter, which made another contribution to strengthening integration in Southeast Asia.

V. M. Mazyrin (ISAA at Moscow State University) reviewed the socio-economic development of Vietnam in recent years and prospects for the coming years. In 2007, new significant results were achieved in the development of a market economy, which resulted in an increase in economic growth, an increase in gross public investment and gold and foreign exchange reserves, and a reduction in poverty. Economic success has served as a basis for ensuring political stability and strengthening Vietnam's role in international affairs.

The first year after joining the WTO was particularly productive in the field of foreign economy - the volume of foreign trade, investments, aid and other funds attracted from abroad increased. These "infusions" largely help to maintain economic balance at the macro level, including maintaining the balance sheets of the state budget and international settlements. The external trade turnover reached $ 109 billion, including exports of about $ 48.4 billion. (increased by 21.5% over the year), averaging $ 568 per inhabitant of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam.-

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iim providing most of the average annual income. The volume of foreign direct investment provided for in the 2007 agreements reached another record of $ 20.3 billion. A total of $ 32 billion worth of investment agreements were signed in 2006 - 2007. South Korea became the leader among foreign investors (25%). Due to high economic results and consistent promotion of social programs, new achievements have been made in addressing the problem of reducing hunger and poverty. The share of poor families decreased on average in the country from 17.2% to 14% in 2006-2007. Accordingly, the human development index has increased. (Vietnam has risen to 105th place in the world out of 177 countries.)

Nevertheless, despite sustained and strong economic growth, the average per capita income of the population remains insignificant due to the extremely low starting point of recovery: Vietnam today ranks 7th among 10 Southeast Asian countries, 35th in Asia and 137th in the world. Today, many obstacles remain, causing difficulties and losses in the country's socio-economic development. There are signs that directly point to the "overheating" of the Vietnamese economy, which indicate that it has become a "victim" of its own successful growth.

A. A. Smirnova (MGIMO University) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation) in its report "Foreign direct investment in Vietnam - dynamics of inflows" noted that the data on the inflow of FDI to this country in 2007 convincingly confirm the general trend of high rates of foreign capital inflows to the country. Vietnam has once again become one of the leaders not only in the group of developing countries, but also in the region. An important indicator is the creation and commissioning of new enterprises with foreign capital (Greenfield Projects). In 2007, the pace of development of facilities approved by the Government of Vietnam significantly increased.

A. A. Sokolov (IB RAS) analyzed the process of cultural integration of Vietnamese emigration into the creative life of modern Vietnam. In recent years, Vietnam has started publishing works by individual expatriate writers (Nguyen Mong Zyak, Nam Zao, Mai Ninh, Thuan, etc.), and publishing articles (mainly in periodicals) of an overview nature about the cultural life of the Vietnamese diaspora in the United States, France, Australia, and other countries. Vietnamese expats (directors, cameramen, actors) are becoming more and more actively involved in the cinematic process in their historical homeland. They mostly work in private film studios. The art films they made in the form of creative cooperation ("Heroic Blood", "Silk Clothes from Hadong", "Saigon Eclipse", etc.) became a prominent phenomenon in the cultural life of the country, and were awarded awards at national and international film festivals. Today, there are objective prerequisites for further expansion of creative contacts and cultural interaction between the mother Country (SRV) and the Vietnamese abroad.

O. V. Yegorunin (Miklukho-Maklay Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology, Russian Academy of Sciences) presented a report on ethnodemographic processes in modern Vietnam. In Vietnam, the number of not only the state ethnic group - the Vietas (Kine), but also other peoples inhabiting the country, called national minorities, is growing. The ratio of the number of Vietas and national minorities remains stable - 84-85% to 14-15%. At the same time, Vietnam's national minorities live in about 3/4 of the country's territory. In conducting national policy, the Vietnamese authorities are largely guided by the example of their great neighbor and the norms of Marxism-Leninism on the national question. The Vietnamese people (nation) is declared "one big family of peoples". The Constitution of Vietnam guarantees equality of all citizens of the country. National minorities are guaranteed the right to speak their native language and to preserve and develop elements of their national culture.

In reality, Vietnam is a unitary State with a fairly rigid administrative vertical. Although chauvinistic sentiments are condemned at the official level, a de facto vietization policy is being implemented inside the country. Unlike in China, where there are national autonomies of various levels, up to the county level, in Vietnam, since 1980, the reference to autonomous territories has disappeared from the updated Constitution without explanation. Only in the 90s of the XX century, with the permission of local authorities, was it allowed to teach in the native language in primary schools.

The problem of poverty among small peoples is very acute, and the authorities, with the assistance of international organizations and NGOs, are taking measures to overcome it. With uneven development of areas inhabited by the main ethnic group of the country, and national minorities within the country

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there is a migration not only of the Vietas, but also of representatives of other ethnic groups. Migration promotes the movement of large groups of the population and, as a result, their mixing and strengthening of integration. But the deepening alienation of small peoples leads to the formation of their ethnic identity, stimulating the growth of separatist sentiments. In fact, the potential for discontent is being formed. However, the forces are clearly unequal, and the current Vietnamese state has enough of them to neutralize this potential, at least externally.

S. I. Ioanesyan (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) noted that in 2007 the situation in the country as a whole, both political and economic, remained stable. The process of transformation of economic and system structures has been developing very dynamically in the republic. Private national capital has been strengthened, and its ties to the global market and the international community have expanded in many ways, including through non-governmental organizations.

Representative indicators of the country's successful development are GDP growth (it was higher than planned for 2007). Inflation has decreased, and the national currency - kip-has strengthened. The poverty level of the population has decreased. The volume of foreign direct investment (including donor investment) increased, including foreign commercial companies that participated in the construction of a number of new enterprises and in the modernization of existing facilities (including the agro-industrial sector). The state has dramatically stepped up its efforts to improve the legislative framework in the field of management in various sectors of the economy.

In conclusion, S. I. Ioanesyan draws attention to the existence of many objective and subjective difficulties facing the Lao PDR on its way out of the list of least developed countries in the world.

The practice of holding annual conferences since 1988 confirms their scientific, theoretical and practical value. Its participants analyze the processes and trends that determine the course of modern development of Southeast Asia at the regional and country levels. Meetings of Southeast Asian specialists have become a forum for the exchange of new ideas among community members - scientists and employees of practical organizations engaged in the study of modern Southeast Asia.

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