The collapse of the world socialist system led to a disruption of the previously existing balance of power on a planetary scale. Thus, left in the face of the economically, militarily, and technologically powerful West, which is pursuing a policy of force in relation to developing countries, the latter are increasingly acutely aware of the need for modernization. In this regard, it becomes relevant to analyze the trends that currently exist in the domestic and regional policies of the Arab States.

A distinctive feature of recent decades has been the noticeable strengthening of the Islamic factor in the socio-political life of many Arab countries, its impact is now being felt to some extent by almost the entire Muslim world, and it is being felt in many adjacent regions.

Currently, secular politicians in Arab countries are aware of the historical need to build a civil society. At the same time, the lack of necessary economic institutions and the peculiarities of historical development in the East make it impossible to create such a society on the Western model. In some Muslim countries of the Near and Middle East, Islamic fundamentalism is seen by politicians and society as the only available way to build a civil society alternative to the Western one.

Attempts by the ruling circles of a number of Western-oriented Afro-Asian countries to impose Western standards and development models that are alien to traditional society give rise to a desire among fundamentalists to get rid of Western influence in any way, including extremism and its extreme manifestation - terrorism. According to the Russian orientalist G. I. Mirsky, " although Islam is not in principle a religion that is incompatible with democracy and human rights, it is easy to use it in this sense, exploiting the anger of poor and destitute peoples who are hungry for the triumph of justice and are inclined to believe those who claim that the whole root of evil is in moving away from "sources", from the righteous path, in following alien norms and values brought from the West "[Mirsky, 1996, p. 139].

Relentless sectarian and ethno-national armed conflicts and related problems: refugees, demographic situation, disorganization and youth unemployment - all these and other factors, along with the inability of politicians to direct the fragmented transitional society to solve national problems, led to the strengthening of the position of fundamentalists in many Islamic countries of the Middle East. In addition, the leaders of these countries view Islamic fundamentalism as an ideology capable of neutralizing ethnic, tribal and confessional separatism.

For example, in countries that pursue a policy of Islamization, " Islam is seen as a mobilization ideology for the population, which, according to the plan, cannot but support-

page 143
recognize those who turn to Islam as an important factor of national identity (although there are remnants of non-Islamic and pre-Islamic consciousness, but they may not be recognized as Islamic either)" [Ignatenko, 1997].

It is noteworthy that this situation is becoming typical not only for the countries of the Middle East. Some of its features are beginning to show up in the CIS countries and Russia. As the Supreme Mufti of Siberia and the Far East Nafigulla Ashirov noted, " the natural rise in the influence of Russian confessions in recent years has inevitably led to an increase in their socio-political influence. At the same time, the growth of self-consciousness of Muslims and, as a result, the Islamic factor is often presented as the growth of "Islamic fundamentalism", "Islamic extremism" or "Islamism"" [Factors of destabilization..., 1998].

The apparent stability of radical Islamic associations is due not only to organizational principles, but also to the socio-economic base. Accordingly, a comprehensive study of this phenomenon includes political, economic, sociological, and socio-political aspects. The problem of so-called "Islamic terrorism"1 needs, in our opinion, a serious critical analysis. For a balanced assessment of the activities of an Islamist group that uses methods of terror, it is necessary to identify the tasks for which violence is used, and its forms. It is necessary to highlight the use of Islamic slogans to cover up the activities of separatist movements and those groups for which terrorism has become a form of existence or a means of profit.

Campaigns in the Western media against "Islamic terrorists "and the activation of radical Islamic fundamentalists in various parts of the world (not excluding Russia)" warm up " each other.

A general preliminary analysis of the factors contributing to the generation of "Islamic terrorism" in the modern world shows that the changes that have taken place in recent years are associated with the collapse of the bipolar world and the promotion of the United States as the sole superpower. As a result, rocket attacks on Sudan and Afghanistan under the pretext of fighting terrorism, bombing under the pretext of protecting the Muslims of Yugoslavia became possible, which led to the creation of fundamentally new rules in international affairs. Against this background, the unrecoverable tension along the North-South axis 2 has not lost its relevance: new states of "Islamic orientation" with their own complexes of internal problems have been added to the socially and economically lagging countries of the former "third world".

The rise of Islamism was a peculiar reaction of Muslim communities to forced Westernization. The sphere of influence of Islamists includes more than a billion believers, more than 50 Muslim countries, and Muslim communities in 120 countries. This creates many problems in international relations, affecting the geopolitical and national interests of many countries and all world powers. The radicalization of Islamist movements was influenced by a whole range of internal problems. These include economic difficulties and the current financial and economic crisis, disproportionately high rates of rural migration to cities, social stratification, unemployment, corruption in the highest echelons of power, human rights violations, repression of Islamists, and limited opportunities for constitutional forms of political activity.

Western Islamic studies is dominated by two points of view on the causes of the emergence of radical Islamic political organizations and movements. Conditionally their

1 A term used mainly in the West. From our point of view, it is more correct to distinguish between "radical political Islam" and "political terrorism" in this range of phenomena, since those who organize terrorist attacks primarily pursue political rather than religious goals.

2 Rich and developed North and poor South.

page 144
it can be designated as sociological and cultural. The methodology of the first type is dominated by the analysis of Islamism as a social movement generated by specific socio-political problems of Muslim society. It is not religion that comes to the fore here, but first of all an analysis of the social conditions in which Islamist movements have emerged and function. The culturological approach is to try to find an explanation for this phenomenon in the specifics of Islam and the organization of the Ummah's life. In modern scientific research, there is a gradual convergence of these approaches, which is undoubtedly more productive.

The research field is replete with controversial and extreme assessments of relations between countries, regions and even civilizations, the prospects for the development of the world economy, social development and the evolution of public consciousness in countries that traditionally profess Islam. The diverse processes in these countries can lead to the formation of new geopolitical trends and confrontations between East and West, and increase tensions between the Islamic and Christian worlds. 3
The policy of force pursued by the United States and its allies in relation to some African and Asian countries provokes the radicalization of Islamism and the use of terrorist methods of struggle as a response, and also contributes to the transition of some adherents of fundamentalism to the Islamist camp. So, in the foreseeable future, we can expect that the influence of Islam on international relations in the Middle East will continue and even increase. In the context of the constant strengthening of the positions of Islamist forces in Arab countries, such as Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Authority, in the medium term, their foreign policy may become radicalized at the regional level, primarily with regard to Israel. If an Islamist-backed political party in one of the Arab countries, having secured the necessary support from deputies, nominates its candidate for a new presidential election, then if he wins, an Islamist-led state may appear in the region, which will certainly affect the transformation of the political landscape of the Middle East and North Africa.

This will serve as an example for Islamist forces to follow in other Arab countries, weaken the positions of existing political regimes and accelerate the formation of new Islam-oriented elites. In other words, the implementation of such a scenario will cause a chain reaction that will reach Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Pakistan, where the influence and activity of Islamist organizations and movements is also strong.

Such a development, which has created tension on Russia's southern borders, cannot but have an impact on its foreign policy towards the Middle East region and most of the Asian countries. Strengthening the position of Islamists, even in such remote and non-bordering Arab countries as Algeria and Morocco, will still, in our opinion, affect the state of Russia's bilateral relations with these and other Arab states not only in the short term, but also in the longer term.

The beginning of the XXI century is marked by the intensification of Russian-Arab economic, political and cultural relations. This is evidenced by the frequent state visits of the top Russian leadership to Morocco, Algeria, the countries of the Arabian Peninsula, and Jordan. A new impetus was given to bilateral relations between Russia and Morocco after the state visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Kingdom of Morocco in September 2006. As a result, a number of intergovernmental agreements were signed 4. In addition, high-ranking Russian

3 What S. Huntington wrote about.

4 In particular, the Convention on the Transfer of Persons Sentenced to Deprivation of Liberty, cooperation agreements-

page 145
5 officials made a number of visits to other Arab countries aimed at boosting bilateral relations. 6. Official visits of Arab leaders to Moscow took place.

Russia's interests require a thorough analysis of the processes of radicalization of the internal political situation in each of the Muslim states individually and in general, and the development of balanced approaches in foreign policy activities. In accordance with the Concept of Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation "...Russia will seek to stabilize the situation in the Middle East, including the Persian Gulf and North Africa, while taking into account the impact of the situation in the region on the situation around the world. Using its status as a co-sponsor of the peace process, Russia intends to actively participate in the normalization of the situation in the region after the crisis. In this context, Russia's priority task will be to restore and strengthen its position, especially its economic position, in this rich and important area of the world for our interests.

Considering the Greater Mediterranean as a connecting node of such regions as the Middle East, the Black Sea region, the Caucasus, and the Caspian Sea basin, Russia intends to pursue a purposeful course towards turning it into a zone of peace, stability, and good neighborliness, which will help promote Russian economic interests, including in choosing routes for important energy flows. " [Concept] foreign policy..., 2000].

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has repeatedly stated the need to preserve the continuity of Russia's foreign policy, so since the spring of 2008, the foreign policy of our state, including in the Arab direction, has not changed dramatically in the strategic plan. A striking example is the fact that our state is still considering the possibility of holding an international conference on the Middle East in Moscow this year, but the exact dates of this event have not yet been determined.

Russia seeks to strengthen its position in the Islamic world by strengthening its authority in the Arab-African region. I must say that Moscow is coping with the set foreign policy task quite successfully. Suffice it to recall that the International Scientific and Practical Conference on Sudan 7 held in the Russian capital in autumn 2009 gave the necessary impetus to the development of Russian-Sudanese political and economic relations.

The Russian presidential administration made only a few tactical adjustments to the course aimed at ensuring the security of Russia itself and protecting its interests in the Arab region. They were necessary in case of changes in the foreign policy course of a number of Arab countries due to the strengthening of the positions of religious and fundamentalist forces in the power structures of Arab states, especially in those institutions of power that are directly or indirectly related to the generation and implementation of foreign policy.

in the field of marine fisheries, on cooperation in the field of tourism, on cultural and scientific cooperation, on cooperation in the field of mass communications, a memorandum of cooperation in the field of physical culture and sports, as well as an agreement on cooperation in the field of health.

5 Ministers, heads of federal agencies, heads of regions.

6 In recent years, our country has been visited by King Mohammed VI of Morocco and Prime Minister Dries Jettou, King Abdullah II of Jordan, a government delegation of the Palestinian Authority led by the head of the political bureau of the Hamas movement Khaled Mashaal, as well as a number of other leaders and political leaders of Arab countries.

7 An international Conference on Sudan issues was held at the President Hotel in Moscow on October 6-7, 2009, with the participation of Russian officials, special representatives of the United States, China, France, the European Union, as well as other interested states and international organizations, public figures and scientists from different countries. The author made a presentation on the topic: "Energy interests of world powers and African countries in the Sudan".

page 146
Why does the situation in the Middle East continue to worry Moscow so much? First of all, because Russia is bound by international obligations as a co-sponsor of the Middle East peace process8. Our country will certainly retain this status in the future, as the "Greater Middle East" has been and remains one of the key regions in the system of international relations at the present stage. It is no coincidence that in the summer of 2009, the Special representative of the Russian President for the Middle East, A.V. Saltanov, paid working visits to Lebanon and Syria, and a little earlier, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, SV. Lavrov took part in the 36th session of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) member states in Damascus.

It is noteworthy that it is traditional for Russian foreign policy to develop relations with foreign countries, first of all on a bilateral basis, and then at the level of regional and international organizations, if necessary, turning to regional and interregional organizations.

It seems that priority will be given to intensifying and improving the efficiency of economic ties, military-technical, scientific and technical cooperation, and cultural contacts, which should result in strengthening Russia's real political influence and restoring its authority in this vast region.

The main goals of Islamists are to come to power and consolidate their positions in key state institutions on a legal democratic basis [9] or an illegal one [10]. In the foreseeable future, the foreign policy rhetoric of individual states in the region is likely to become tougher, which may negatively affect the situation in the region itself and in neighboring regions, where the Islamic factor has had and continues to have a significant impact on the formation of political realities.

Taking into account the fact that the Muslim population in Russia, according to various estimates, is from 16 to 20 million people [Interview... R. Gainutdin, 2005], Russia's foreign policy in the Arab (and in general, in the Islamic) direction will have to be carried out taking into account the interests of this part of the population, in order to prevent an increase in the number of internal tensions in the process of making foreign policy decisions.

The hypothesis that the Islamization of all spheres of life in Arab countries, especially political ones, ultimately leads to the radicalization of their foreign policy has been confirmed in some cases.11
The Arab region is heterogeneous. First, there are two sub-regions: the Maghreb and Mashriq. The link between them is Egypt. Secondly, some countries are traditionally oriented towards the West12, while others have strong anti-Western and anti-American sentiments 13. Therefore, a single balanced "Arab" regional policy can be discussed with a certain degree of conditionality. Nevertheless, it is possible to note the similarity of positions of the leadership of all Arab countries on key regional issues. 14 However, if the pro-Western-oriented ruling elites in a number of Arab countries are replaced by Islamist ones, we can most likely expect a radicalization of foreign policy not only at the national level, but also at the regional level in the medium term. The event of the summer of 2007 in Palestine - the actual split of the autonomy into two territories15-confirms the probability of this forecast.

8 Together with the UN, EU and US.

9 Palestinian Authority, Morocco.

10 Egypt, Algeria.

11 Palestinian Authority, Iraq, Lebanon.

12 Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf monarchies.

13 Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan, Palestinian Authority, Syria.

14 The Palestinian problem, reconstruction of Iraq, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction.

15 The Gaza Strip is under Hamas control and the West Bank is under Fatah control.

page 147
Speaking in general about the Middle East settlement process and the growing influence of Islamism on the situation in the Arab world and neighboring regions, we should note the obvious ineffectiveness of most of the measures and steps taken by leading Western Powers and regional and international organizations16 in this area.

Despite Russia's repeated calls for the involvement of all interested countries, including Syria and Iran, in a peaceful dialogue, no significant progress has been made in this direction. In addition, most influential Islamist organizations are excluded from constructive political dialogue, mainly because their main demand is to end the existence of Israel as an independent subject of international law.

That is why any agreements reached so far between the main participants in the peace process remain, in fact, declarations of intent, and the 60-year history of the Arab-Israeli conflict is the most convincing evidence of this. The conflict has long been internationalized, it has divided the world community, and the Middle East, being a strategic region, will remain a hotbed of increased tension in the political, economic and humanitarian spheres for several decades to come. A political solution to this problem has not yet been found and cannot be worked out due to the current situation in the system of international relations at the turn of the XX-XXI centuries.

The current situation in the Muslim world contributes to the strengthening of radical concepts of Islamism, which in no way indicates the impossibility of liberal-reformist interpretations of Islamic doctrines.

list of literature

Ignatenko A. A. Islamization in Chechen // Nezavisimaya gazeta. 20.11.1997.

Interview of the Chairman of the Council of Muftis of Russia mufti sheikh R. Gainutdin / / Arguments and Facts. N40. 5.05.2005.

The Concept of Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation (Approved by the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on June 28, 2000). www.mid.ru

Mirsky G. I. Authoritarianism and democracy: two models? // POLICY. 1996. N 6.

Factors of destabilization of the religious and political situation in Dagestan. Materials of the round table // Nezavisimaya gazeta. 17.06.1998.

16 EU, UN, Quartet, LAS, etc.

Permanent link to this publication: